Colin Jones (S1 E9): Knockout KISS – Gambling With An Edge

At the Blackjack Ball 1 calendar year, Tommy Hyland arrived up to me
expressing he experienced a issue. The preface “I have a problem for you” is constantly a
tiny unnerving, primarily coming from an individual you do not talk to quite usually. So
then he asked me … [wait for it …]

“Why do you advocate KO?”

I was amazed, not by the query by itself, but because it
indicated Tommy will have to have examine something I wrote. I consider most experienced
gamblers who know me do not really go through any of my stuff. But everyone’s been
looking at Colin Jones’s The 21^st-Century Card Counter, which
espouses the exact principle—simplicity receives the money—but attracts a a bit diverse
conclusion.

Mies and I are A lot less-Is-Far more apologists, and CJ, who is familiar with additional counters than I do, agrees: “All the profitable card counters I know (I’m speaking 6- or seven-figure earners) have built their dollars not by the complexity of their systems, but by aggressively attacking the casinos and acquiring in hundreds of several hours of enjoy.” I would only make a slight modification. The most productive counters I have witnessed aggressively assault particular casinos, but fully steer clear of other individuals.

Some counters will go in advance and perform wherever, but I don’t
believe which is ideal. There are casinos out there that will make it possible for a surprising
selection of several hours. They just really don’t know what a counter appears to be like like, or they are
unwilling to get countermeasures from the player. Effective counters
generally play these unicorn casinos typically and tough, sometimes camping out for months.
The late Large Purple camped out on the very same table for yrs! Imagine about that—spreading
from to 2x$300, with no go over, for 20-40 hours for every week, for years. And
receiving details and comps on a player’s card on leading of it all.  (That could appear to be like heaven to some, but I’m
not certain if I ever saw the man smile—not the moment.)

CJ presses the case for deciding upon a easy depend system: “You
can study a substantially extra challenging depend, but when you think about 1) the
complexity, 2) the time required to definitely learn it, 3) the place for error
(which comes at a charge), 4) the total of psychological electricity it requires to use it, and
5) the price of rounds for every hour, I problem irrespective of whether you will truly make more
cash. … And my strongest argument for HiLo is that every single major card-counting
crew I know of has applied it.” To me, that very last argument is in fact the weakest.

Ironically, one of the teams CJ is conversing about would be
Hyland’s staff, but Tommy essentially stated the very same point to me at the Ball. When Tommy
started off out, the Knockout Rely (KO) did not exist, and other groups were using
HiLo. So all people takes advantage of HiLo simply because absolutely everyone else employs it? It’s a fiat depend
process!

All right, HiLo is really a good program, but if, on paper, HiLo
is similar to KO, then I’m really confident that KO will ruin HiLo in the
wild. Why do I say that? For the reason that comprehensive observation of actual APs in the
wild demonstrates that their general performance is continuously underneath the system specs
underlying the laptop-optimum EV.

Persons have a skepticism with regards to running-depend systems,
but KO has a good pivot, and its indices are additional precise than HiLo’s, due to KO’s
successfully finer stepsize when we limit indices to be integers. A solitary
issue in the operating-counted KO signifies around a .2% transform in EV, when a
stage in the legitimate-counted HiLo signifies about .5%. If we ended up to find out fractional
HiLo indices, that KO advantage would go away, but no one particular would want to understand
that doubling 9 vs. 7 should take place at HiLo +3.2 (or +2.8, or whatever).

But search, no a single estimates decks remaining perfectly, specially
when the discard rack and shoe are opaque. And no just one does the division rapidly
ample, so hemming and hawing and stalling is introduced to the match. Then the
execution isn’t as easy, and time is squandered.

An additional argument that I in some cases hear, but thankfully not
in CJ’s e book, is that HiLo is additional compatible with shuffle tracking. Oh be sure to.
Just quit.

If we’re going to talk about other further than-counting solutions, then the situation for a correct-counted program like HiLo will get weaker, and KO seems to be very good. When I’m actively playing a complex blackjack sport, if I count at all, the counting aspect of items demands to be really simple, and not slow down selections that could now be tough. KO is the restrict to what I’m prepared to do when multi-tasking.

Every single player swears that his execution is flawless, and it is
the other male who should take into account a easier program like KO, but the information
states normally. In each and every occasion exactly where we do a pop quiz or secret audit
to check a player’s talent, the final results are disappointing. (This is the scene in
the film clip where by we all stand in a group, and just one-by-one phase ahead to
announce “I am the underperforming AP.”)

In latest years, I’ve become a little bit let down by the AP group, primarily since the skill stage in general is so poor, and the posers are tolerated. And I imagine there’s some idiocracy going on. I assume we’re getting even worse, in spite of all the new equipment readily available to study. I think the millennials are not as major about the recreation, and probably CJ unfairly can take some of the heat for that. But the very best way to make improvements to collectively is to be real looking about our skills in the field, and utilitize the basic but highly effective units we now have available. By advertising HiLo, Colin Jones’s BJA empire is a phase in the suitable course (from UstonAPC, RevereAPC, WongHalves, and many others). For a veteran or a new participant, I’d endorse KO, but CJ’s accomplishing very good operate preaching HiLo. It’s aiight.